Post by booley on Mar 10, 2009 7:10:20 GMT -5
It's not as if we haven't lost political parties before (remember the Whigs? Neither does anyone else) But I think this is unlikely in this case.
If history is any guide the evangelicals will eventually withdrawal from politics. Their involvement in politics seems to be cyclical and the current cycle maybe finally winding down.
But they will eventually come back and go with whatever party they think is the more conservative. Before the GOP it was the Democrats.
Also if we look at not too distant history, people were seriously talking about the demise of the Democratic party after the "republican revolution". Rove had in the works plans for a Republican one party government that would last 30 years if not a century.
Needless to say that isn't how it worked out.
Like Mark Twain once said, History never repeats but it often rhymes. So I think the most likely scenario is this...
The GOP will remain in the political wilderness for a while, going ever deeper as they seem unable to face the problems of the country (many of which are a direct consequence of their policies and/or ideology)
Similarly society will continue to evolve making a lot of the wedge issues the GOP uses as obsolete as Temperance or Segregation.
The Republicans then can two things. They can change their ideology to better fit with the times
Or they can wait. Either for a period of stability or incredible instability.
Eventually people will forget WHY the GOP was so unpopular. That's a large part of why Reagan was so successful. He could claim that Government was the problem because so many could no longer remember when government was very much solution. It's kind of the catch 22 about reform. Successful reform undermines the very social impetus that spawned and kept it going.
I should also point out that they can wait for another disaster. Indeed, that seems to be behind at least of the GOP's strategy. IF Obama can't fix the mess left by Shrub then they figure it becomes Obama's mess. This can seen in how they started blaming Obama for the financial disaster before he was even sworn in.
Incredible instability makes people more prone to accept authoritarianism. And the GOP is chock full of authoritarians.
So no, I don't think the GOP is going to fade away.
If history is any guide the evangelicals will eventually withdrawal from politics. Their involvement in politics seems to be cyclical and the current cycle maybe finally winding down.
But they will eventually come back and go with whatever party they think is the more conservative. Before the GOP it was the Democrats.
Also if we look at not too distant history, people were seriously talking about the demise of the Democratic party after the "republican revolution". Rove had in the works plans for a Republican one party government that would last 30 years if not a century.
Needless to say that isn't how it worked out.
Like Mark Twain once said, History never repeats but it often rhymes. So I think the most likely scenario is this...
The GOP will remain in the political wilderness for a while, going ever deeper as they seem unable to face the problems of the country (many of which are a direct consequence of their policies and/or ideology)
Similarly society will continue to evolve making a lot of the wedge issues the GOP uses as obsolete as Temperance or Segregation.
The Republicans then can two things. They can change their ideology to better fit with the times
Or they can wait. Either for a period of stability or incredible instability.
Eventually people will forget WHY the GOP was so unpopular. That's a large part of why Reagan was so successful. He could claim that Government was the problem because so many could no longer remember when government was very much solution. It's kind of the catch 22 about reform. Successful reform undermines the very social impetus that spawned and kept it going.
I should also point out that they can wait for another disaster. Indeed, that seems to be behind at least of the GOP's strategy. IF Obama can't fix the mess left by Shrub then they figure it becomes Obama's mess. This can seen in how they started blaming Obama for the financial disaster before he was even sworn in.
Incredible instability makes people more prone to accept authoritarianism. And the GOP is chock full of authoritarians.
So no, I don't think the GOP is going to fade away.