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Post by MaybeNever on Jan 7, 2010 17:37:17 GMT -5
Scalia's only 73, and apparently in decent health. He could be there for another 20 years with some luck (or misfortune, depending).
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Post by goonerboy on Jan 7, 2010 17:48:52 GMT -5
How likely is this to get through?
Sorry, don't know much about Yank politics, I'm using this site as a springboard really ;D
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Post by ironbite on Jan 7, 2010 18:19:59 GMT -5
Depends really on the arguments. Also there's appeals and other things. I'm just hoping that if this is thrown out on the local level, the fundies try to take it higher and keep going higher until SCOTUS says it's bullshit and throws out all gay marriage bans.
Ironbite-and then the fundies go insane as they realize the gays have the right to be totally misreable with one person for the rest of their lives.
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Post by MaybeNever on Jan 7, 2010 18:23:46 GMT -5
It's really hard to say. This is virtually certain to go to the Supreme Court, which is a fairly conservative body; that said, it has had its victories for progressive causes in the past (Loving v. Virginia, for instance, legalized interracial marriage). Honestly I think it's up in the air right now, leaning toward failure. But as mentioned I'm somewhat pessimistic about the whole thing.
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Post by Undecided on Jan 7, 2010 18:31:32 GMT -5
I'd err on the side of pessimism, as well.
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Post by devilschaplain2 on Jan 7, 2010 21:23:55 GMT -5
It's really hard to say. This is virtually certain to go to the Supreme Court, which is a fairly conservative body; that said, it has had its victories for progressive causes in the past (Loving v. Virginia, for instance, legalized interracial marriage). Honestly I think it's up in the air right now, leaning toward failure. But as mentioned I'm somewhat pessimistic about the whole thing. I wouldn't necessarily lean toward failure as you put it. Bowers v. Hardwick upheld bans on sodomy in 1986, but this was reversed in 2003 with Lawrence v. Texas. In 1996, the Supreme Court ruled that a Colorado amendment stripping gays, lesbians and bisexuals of fundamental rights enjoyed by other citizens of Colorado was unconstitutional and rejected the anti-gay "special rights" argument ( Romer v. Evans). Several state supreme courts have ruled in favor of gay marriage and set precedent for other types of these cases. The biggest obstacle for us right now is Baker v. Nelson, a 1972 case in which the Minnesota Supreme Court decided that laws limiting marriage to heterosexual couples did not violate the U.S. Constitution. It was then appealled to the U.S. Supreme Court which dismissed the case "for want of a substantial federal question." Now, we've come a long way since 1972 and gay marriage is a huge issue in this country so perhaps the Supreme Court will change its mind and hear the case this time around.
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Post by MaybeNever on Jan 8, 2010 1:44:24 GMT -5
I'm not worried about the SCOTUS dismissing the case so much as ruling against marriage equality. That would be a deathblow to the cause for at least a generation, I think. I cannot for the life of me imagine how such a ruling could be defended or arrived at - this is the United States of America, not fucking Iran - but my lack of imagination has heretofore failed to prove an impediment to the idiocy and villainy of certain parties in this country.
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Post by scienceisgreen on Jan 8, 2010 8:41:21 GMT -5
Now if only those lawyers would come over to Florida next and challenge our Prop 2 and anti gay adoption amendment.
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Post by Tiger on Jan 8, 2010 13:39:49 GMT -5
Now if only those lawyers would come over to Florida next and challenge our Prop 2 and anti gay adoption amendment. That's exactly what they're doing by attempting to take it to the Supreme Court.
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Post by brandonl337 on Jan 8, 2010 13:52:52 GMT -5
Would outlawing the gay marriage ban prevent a ban on gays adopting?
Let's hope we can get another judge into the seat before this get to the court, It's absurd that you guys can't marry the people you love. Let's hope the fascists get a beat down at SCOTUS.
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Post by Tiger on Jan 8, 2010 14:00:04 GMT -5
Would outlawing the gay marriage ban prevent a ban on gays adopting? I doubt the Supreme Court's ruling will address the issue directly, but the ruling will set a precedent regarding discriminatory laws that will make it easy for state courts to overturn those bans.
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Post by Ian1732 on Jan 8, 2010 14:00:59 GMT -5
Holy crap... If this goes all the way, it'll be as savage a blow to the religious right since the Scopes Monkey Trial!
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Post by Tiger on Jan 8, 2010 14:03:13 GMT -5
Holy crap... If this goes all the way, it'll be as savage a blow to the religious right since the Scopes Monkey Trial! You know we lost that one, right?
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Post by Ian1732 on Jan 8, 2010 14:28:48 GMT -5
Err... No. But it still did lead to Evolution over Intelligent Design in schools, right?
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Post by devilschaplain2 on Jan 8, 2010 14:37:57 GMT -5
Err... No. But it still did lead to Evolution over Intelligent Design in schools, right? The decision to overturn bans on the teaching of evolution was Epperson v. Arkansas (1968).
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