I played up to 1 June 1937, so there are about twenty pictures here. Future updates will probably be shorter in general and smaller in scope.
Here's my initial build order. In addition to the original four factories, I've added two runs of two carriers each, which will finish some time in mid-38, about when I'll be getting better carrier technology, and three runs of ten infantry divisions each. These will go to round out my existing forces into nine-division armies and add a few more such armies. By mid-'37 I should have about 72 infantry divisions, or eight armies of nine divisions each. Once the new factories finish, and as technology improves my industrial base, other options will become possible.
The 2-26 Coup. In reality, this move by ultra-rightist military personnel was ended more or less peaceably after three days, and the leaders were thereafter executed or imprisoned. The end result was a government move to increase its power over society which it totally needed. In the longer term, the attempted coup strengthened the faction which most strongly pushed for creation of the East Asian Co-Prosperity Sphere, and its failure was probably a substantial factor in local Japanese aggression going into the '40s.
In this case I hear out the demands because it allows for a number of favorable slider shifts. Although the cabinet afterward isn't ideal, I can make one change which helps. End result, besides the slider shifts, is that I have four percent dissent - this temporarily reduces my industry by four percent, makes my soldiers fight two percent worse, increases partisan activity in all provinces, and all sorts of other horrible things. Fortunately my investment in consumer goods gobbles it up at a rate of 0.06 or 0.08 percent per day, so it doesn't last long.
Elsewhere, Italy proves its superiority by beating up on Ethiopia. However, it takes them more than three months, proving once again that superior numbers, technology, firepower, and training don't make up for just being Italian. Watch for a repeat performance in '39 when they go after Albania.
A terrain map of China, with lines indicating campaign goals. The red indicates the extent of Chinese territory, much of which is held by warlords nominally but not actually responsible to Nanjing. The good news is that a Japanese invasion would surely never result in some sort of united front, aligning them all against the foreign foe.
In the first six months, the goal of an invasion would probably be to reach the blue line; anything more is just icing on the cake. In the second year, the green lines represent priority targets; taking the coast cuts China off from foreign aid, taking Nanjing (also possible in the first six months) hurts their industry; the far west Chongqing region, after the fall of Nanjing, houses a significant portion of Chinese industry and serves as the new capital. Even getting there signals basically the end of the war.
The principal issue is the terrain, which in China is insanely rough. All the grey is mountains, which offer defenders a significant bonus AND give a significant penalty to attackers, and are very slow to move through to boot. The light orange is hilly terrain, a less worrisome version of mountains. The lighter orange is desert, which is incredibly slow to move through. The white provinces are plains, which are best for attackers. Basically, attacking China is always an adventure.
Thanks to technology and sliders, there's enough IC by June '36 to devote a bit to reinforcements. These will gradually filter in and restore the army to full strength.
Here you can see the evolution of two 1936 wars. To be honest I'm not sure what the Guangxi War is supposed to represent except maybe increasing KMT control over the south China coast, but nevermind that. The KMT and the Guangxi Clique fight for a few months, the Nationalists get the upper hand, and peace is settled with the Clique losing about half their territory. Occasionally the AI won't make peace here, which in turn triggers the Japanese AI to invade, unprovoked, in November or December. But Japan isn't a computer this time, and anyway both sides become pals again.
Spain's a different story, with the Spanish making natural enemies of other Spanish, who are wrecking Spain for the Spanish. The Spanish Civil War can really go either way, and the initial breakdown here, with the Nationalists in control of Madrid, makes it seem like they'll squish the Republicans. Indeed, in September, with the Nationalists controlling the more industrialized North, I'd peg their victory for some time around mid-'37. This is ideal for Germany and Italy, since a Nationalist victory wins them some technical blueprints that double research speed on a few techs, as well as a couple of other things.
Instead, come December, it's down to a stalemate with the Nationalists pushed into corners. The Republicans haven't won yet, and the Nationalists COULD come back... but if they're not dead by 1938 I'll be astonished. And then it's the Soviets who get the gift bag.
In October, the factories finish. Base IC jumps to 90 by the month's end, and production starts on a few divisions of cavalry. The Pretty Pony Princesses will form the mobile wing of the army, since horses don't drink oil. Meanwhile, the army is back to full strength, and a small amount of industry is now spent turning our army that would have been high tech twenty years ago into an army that might actually, like, win a war in *this* decade. Ideally the upgrading will be done by June of 1937, but it's not too likely.
Across the Pacific, the Americans show their decadence once again by "electing" a crippled liberal. Give me a regiment of irregulars and enough garbage scows to carry them, and I'll take Washington in six months. No liberal knows how to fight!
A quick overview of what's being researched late in the year. Note the marines: those will become very, very important.
Happy New Year! The slider move goes one step toward Central Planning, which grants yet another five percent bonus to industry. We'll need it; however, also note our small stocks of rare materials (third from the left at the top, representing things like nitrates and rubber). Although we have a little surplus, every effective IC costs 1/2 a rare material per day, or 58.5 per day. If we lost our trading deals, our industry would grind down in about a month. Taking Indonesia would certainly help....
HITLER: LOL COMNUITS IS GAY LOLOLOL
MUSSOLINI: YAH LOL FAGOTRS
HIROHITO: *sigh* You guys are such idiots. Fine, whatever.
Preliminary plan for reaching the Yellow River, should war with China break out. No direct attack on Beijing would be made until it is encircled, at which time its occupation would allow for the destruction either in combat or as prisoners of its entire garrison. Farther west, bringing forces down into Yuling would afford a command of the entire region, not only pinning down substantially more enemy divisions to defend all bordering provinces but providing an excellent jumping-off point into Shaanxi Province where the local Communists make base. Altogether this campaign is expected to take three months.
What's going on with research in mid-1937. My next update will include pictures of each tech page so that exactly what's been researched can be seen. The real point of note here is that research is progressing into a new model of aircraft carrier, while the University of Tokyo Mathematics department under Teiji Takagi is pondering better ways to decrypt enemy transmissions.
And finally what's under production at the moment. The final two infantry divisions will be done around the 11th, rounding off the army, while airbase expansions will finish around the same time to create a base capable of hosting the new model of interceptors that currently crowd Changde airbase (size 2 versus the 4 squadrons that are there). Upgrades aren't finished, but all IC will turn to that as these projects finish.
The first major choice is upon us now, too. In six weeks or less, the Marco Polo Bridge incident will give a solid excuse to attack China, a weak nation that would be easy enough to bring into Japanese political orbit.
However, it won't be long before the Soviets purge their officer corps which really does hurt them a lot. If one wanted to suckerpunch the Soviets, that'd be a nice time to do it (though it might also break the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact event and mess up WW2 in Europe a bit). Unfortunately, being heavily engaged in China would make that an impracticality and the odds of beating China in time to also drive through Siberia are pretty small.
The third option is simply to sit at peace. This has the advantage of letting our forces build up, but in the long term will hurt simply because China will grow stronger faster and could come after their territory in Manchukuo at an inopportune time.