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Post by ltfred on Jul 17, 2011 18:17:15 GMT -5
Under that Assads, Syria has been stable for about 40 years except for a brief revolt in the '80s much the current Assad's father dealt with rather nicely. I think a stable Syria ruled a secular regime is better than one that is either controlled by the Muslim Brotherhood or will explode into sectarian strife, a la Iraq. Before the Assads, there were coups every other week or so. I seriously doubt that the Muslim Brotherhood would successfully take over Syria in a dictatorship. The 'experts' who suggested that in the case of Egypt are now red-faced, with the Army takeover. That's pretty much the possibilities for Syria- millitary rule or actual democracy. Millitary rule is no worse than the current situ, and democracy is by far the best outcome possible. |
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Post by linuxianilmurov on Jul 17, 2011 18:19:56 GMT -5
Democracy is almost certainly impossible in Syria. It's too diverse and has too many sectarian tensions for any real democracy to ever come about, without some serious ethnic cleansing. In Egypt it seems pretty likely the Brotherhood will take over, and in Syria it came pretty close in the '80s when they took over Hama, which had never happened in Egypt.
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Post by ironbite on Jul 17, 2011 18:28:50 GMT -5
....it's too diverse so democracy is impossible
Ironbite-you live in the states too right?
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Post by Dragon Zachski on Jul 17, 2011 18:37:08 GMT -5
Democracy is almost certainly impossible in Syria. It's too diverse and has too many sectarian tensions for any real democracy to ever come about, without some serious ethnic cleansing. In Egypt it seems pretty likely the Brotherhood will take over, and in Syria it came pretty close in the '80s when they took over Hama, which had never happened in Egypt. Sorry. Did you just cite "diversity" as a reason for democracy not working? I'm sorry, I'll be over here, laughing. |
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Post by ltfred on Jul 17, 2011 18:42:26 GMT -5
Democracy is almost certainly impossible in Syria. Syria has been a democracy, with fits and starts. Like in nearly all the Arab world, the major threat to parliamentary democracy (which was formally the system of government from 1946-1970) has been the Army. There has never been major ethnic conflict in Syria, no major genocide against Kurds or minority Shias. Syria appears to have no more ethnic trouble than Egypt or Iran. Of who? Virtually impossible. And the entire party- women, children and elderly- were slaughtered in their tens of thousands? That's 'almost' taking over the government? The Muslim Brotherhood could never take over the state by force, only by election. If there are elections, you have democracy. And if you have democracy, the Brotherhood can be kicked out if they do badly. And they have too little support in the secular millitary to take over in a coup. But I don't think they'd even win an election. It's an imported ideology tacked onto the back of popular anti-Assad sentiment that actually has no resonance in Syrians. What are their big complaints with the government? Are they religious complaints, or secular complaints? Are they asking for jobs, or hijabs? |
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Post by ironbite on Jul 17, 2011 19:10:13 GMT -5
I'm agreeing with ltfred.
Ironbite-that shouldn't happen.
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Post by linuxianilmurov on Jul 17, 2011 20:10:10 GMT -5
Guys just because the Brotherhood might take over through elections doesn't mean democracy will hold. I hate to bring them into this, but the Nazis were democratically elected, and they didn't keep it needless to say.
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Post by ironbite on Jul 17, 2011 20:17:41 GMT -5
......you've seriously worn out your welcome.
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Post by linuxianilmurov on Jul 17, 2011 20:30:28 GMT -5
BTW revolutions have been hijacked before, see the Russian Revolution and the Iranian Revolution just sayin.
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Post by ltfred on Jul 17, 2011 20:37:48 GMT -5
Guys just because the Brotherhood might take over through elections doesn't mean democracy will hold. I hate to bring them into this, but the Nazis were democratically elected, and they didn't keep it needless to say. The only structure with enough power to overthrow any Syrian parliament in is the secular army. There is no chance that the army would back the Brotherhood. Going by form, if the army chose to become political, they'd just take power themselves in a millitary coup. They wouldn't be kingmakers for another group that they hate. Germany was a different story. Germany's army was less political and had never officially taken power of it's own accord after a coup. The army was also broadly pro-Nazi, as were organised conservative organisations and big buisness. Furthermore, the Nazi party were actually an organisation, in the sense that they were organised- which the Brotherhood is not. The Nazis never had to suffer government persecution, for instance. |
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Post by ltfred on Jul 17, 2011 20:41:09 GMT -5
BTW revolutions have been hijacked before, see the Russian Revolution and the Iranian Revolution just sayin. Firstly, there was no army in Russia, nor a history of an effectively political armed forces. And, in Iran, the army gave up and got out of the way, allowing for the Islamists to shoot all the socialists (the army hated both groups, and felt they could not take power properly). The Islamists also had an obvious political leader, and had taken a leading role in kicking out the government. Also, Iran was a democracy until only a few years ago. |
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Post by ironbite on Jul 17, 2011 20:42:00 GMT -5
Thank you Fred.
Ironbite-and with those words I burn my fingers.
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Post by ltfred on Jul 17, 2011 20:45:40 GMT -5
Thank you Fred. Ironbite-and with those words I burn my fingers. What? |
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Post by Mlle Antéchrist on Jul 17, 2011 22:00:34 GMT -5
Linux, direct question (and keep in mind that we have a rule about avoiding direct questions here): Are you saying that maintaining the status quo is a justifiable reason for a country's leader to fire upon protesting citizens? Even if said citizens are unarmed?
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Post by Her3tiK on Jul 17, 2011 22:00:58 GMT -5
This sounds like the perfect excuse to invade assist the spread of democracy.
America, fuck yeah!
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